According to @cas_abbe, the highlighted chart tracks the average on-chain cost basis of new Bitcoin short-term holders alongside standard deviation bands that have historically captured overheating and cooling phases, providing an actionable BTC risk map for traders, source: Cas Abbé on X, Aug 16, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, the post notes that the STH cost basis currently sits around a level shown on the chart, framing where BTC stands relative to bands that historically signaled overheated versus cooled conditions, source: Cas Abbé on X, Aug 16, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, monitoring BTC in relation to the STH cost basis and its deviation bands helps assess risk-on or risk-off positioning by referencing zones that historically aligned with market overheating and cooling, source: Cas Abbé on X, Aug 16, 2025.

According to glassnode, Bitcoin has briefly reclaimed the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis as ETF inflows surged to $1.54 billion. This significant movement saw nearly 5% of Bitcoin's supply rotating, indicating heightened market activity. Despite the increase in demand, shorts are building up, suggesting that traders are preparing for potential price reversals. Furthermore, profit-taking has intensified as Bitcoin's price retests critical resistance levels, yet strength above $92.9k remains unconfirmed. Such dynamics could affect trading strategies as investors weigh the implications of these market shifts.

According to Cas Abbé, BTC price is now above the STH cost basis, a historical indicator of potential upside. Previous instances, such as October 2024, saw BTC reaching new highs following similar patterns. However, traders should remain cautious of potential fakeouts.

According to glassnode, Bitcoin is trading below the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis of $92.5K, a historical threshold distinguishing local bull and bear phases. The STH Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio stands at 0.96, indicating STHs are experiencing an average paper loss of 4%. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the STH cost basis, it could lead to sustained selling pressure from recent buyers.